Climatic variability is one of the factors making agricultural development difficult in the Sahel. Rainfall diminishes as one moves toward the northern part of the Sahel. The trend is that the lower the rainfall, the higher the climatic variability. In addition, overall rainfall in the season may be satisfactory, but poor distribution may significantly reduce agricultural output.

Short term and seasonal weather forecasts are developed in the Sahel. The African Centre of Application of Weather Forecasting to Development (ACMAD) provides in May of each year a rainfall forecast for the following season in West Africa. The probability for a season to be good, normal or poor is given based on sea temperature (El Niño effect) (ACMAD 2006). In July, a review of the seasonal weather forecast is given. The AGRHYMET (a CILSS institution) uses this data, together with the hydrological assessment and the prospect of locust attacks, to develop a forecast in August on yields and food situation at the time of harvest in the different Sahelian zones (AGRYHYMET 2006). This can serve as an early warning in each country. According to the AGRHYMET, the food crisis in Niger in 2005 was predicted well before it was disclosed in the media. As for the locust attacks, the AGRHYMET can provide early warning one year in advance.

As far as future climate is concerned, there is no clear trend following different long-term climatic models (CIFOR 2005). However, it is likely that temperatures will rise without being able to say more on rainfall.

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