The price of millet varies considerably from one year to another as demonstrated in Table 3 (Abdoulaye and Sanders 2006, Vitale and Sanders 2005). The price of the kilogram of millet at the end of a bad agricultural season is about FCFA 130, while it is FCFA 50 at the end of a good season. The price of millet continues to increase for many months after harvest if the yield has been low and inversely for years when yields have been high. Farmers grow millet and sorghum as sources of income and in order to meet their cereal needs for their own consumption. From the standpoint of profitability, it is surprising that it would be more profitable to use fertilizers during a bad season than during a good season as Table 3 demonstrates. This is a consequence of price increase after poor harvests. A high price after a bad season is beneficial for farmers who are able to sell cereals, but at the expense of those who must buy them. The risks of the price of millet going down after a good year are high as Table 3 demonstrates. In such a case, the profitability of the use of fertilizers is low if not negative. In Sahelian countries there are no established mechanisms in place that can help to avoid a collapse of prices. An approach that farmers can use is to use the surplus production for fattening, for plough oxen or to feed chickens (Vitale and Sanders 21005). Farmers can rapidly increase their poultry production after a good season. Another alternative to reduce overproduction is to develop the food and agricultural industry. The transformation of millet grain into couscous is a growing industry in the Sahelian countries and such transformation may contribute to reduce the fall of millet prices (Vitale and Sanders 2005). The yield prediction that AGRHYMET gives each year in August can help farmers make informed decisions concerning investments in animals. 

Table 3. Production risk (based on data over 70 years), yield and variation of millet prices between different years for (average rainfall of 450 to 500 mm).

 printer friendly