Planning With Uncertainty: Using Scenario Planning with African Pastoralists

Pastoralists have always lived with change, but the current pace and scale of change is unprecedented. Now, more than ever, diversification and adaptation are key to ensuring that pastoralists’ future is secure. The purpose of this booklet is to illustrate how the idea of scenario planning is being used to help pastoralists in Africa manage uncertainty and change.

SOS Sahel UK and IIED | December 2009

This booklet is written with community development workers primarily in mind. It is written for those who may be interested in facilitating scenario planning with communities and wish to know more about it. It describes the process involved and discusses the benefits, challenges and implications of the approach.

There are four sections. After a brief introduction the first section gives a flavour of the three experiences from which this booklet is drawn – two in Kenya and one in Niger. The second section discusses the role of the facilitator while the third describes the main elements of a scenario planning process. The final section offers some concluding reflections.

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